Skip to content

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is Predico?

  • Predico is a Collaborative Forecasting Platform designed to improve forecasting accuracy by facilitating collaboration between Market Makers (e.g., wind farm owners, grid operators) and Forecasters. You can interact with the platform via its REST API or through the web application.

2. Who are the main participants?

  • Market Maker: An entity that owns resources or manages grids, publishing forecasting challenges and funding the sessions.
  • Forecaster: An individual or organization that submits forecasts to compete for prize money in response to challenges published by Market Makers.

3. How do Market Sessions and Challenges work?

  • Market Session: A daily period during which Market Makers can publish forecasting challenges, and Forecasters can submit their forecasts.
  • Market Challenge: A specific forecasting opportunity provided by a Market Maker, specifying details like target variables, time resolution and forecast horizon.

4. How do I register as a Forecaster?

  • Forecasters must apply by emailing predico@elia.be. Upon acceptance, you will receive a registration link.

5. How are forecasts submitted?

  • Forecasts must be submitted via HTTPs requests to the platform's API before the Gate Closure Time.
  • You can only submit or update one forecast per variable per session. The most recent valid submission before the Gate Closure Time is considered.

6. What are the rules for submitting forecasts?

  • Gate Closure Time: Forecasts must be submitted on time; late submissions are not accepted.
  • Forecast Resolution: Forecasts must match the 15-minute time resolution requirement.
  • Coverage: Forecasts should cover the entire specified period providing up to 96 forecasted values per variable per day (adjusted for daylight saving time - 92/100 values in march/october DST change days, respectively).

7. How are forecasts evaluated and scored?

  • Please refer to the Evaluation section for more details.

8. Where can I see my scores and rankings?

9. How are payments handled?

  • Payments are made monthly in Euro to European bank accounts. Please refer to the Evaluation section and the Participation Rulebook for full details on payment thresholds and conditions.

10. What compliance measures are in place?

  • Fair Play Policy: The market is designed to reward Forecasters making accurate forecasts. Integrity and honesty are paramount.
  • Prohibited Actions: Any attempt to interfere with the proper functioning of the market, platform, or competitors—including gaming the market—is strictly prohibited.
  • Disciplinary Actions: Violations will result in removal from the market, non-payment, and possible legal action.
  • Elia's Rights: Elia reserves the right to remove a Forecaster from the market for any reason.

11. Where can I access relevant data?

  • Input data is available on Elia's Open Data Portal. You can also use external sources, like weather forecasts, to improve your submissions.

12. How will I be informed about updates?

  • Elia will send important updates and rule changes via email. Forecasters are responsible for staying informed about any rule changes or updates.

13. Who can I contact for more information?

14. Do my quantile forecasts need to be ordered (Q10 ≤ Q50 ≤ Q90)?

  • While the platform does not strictly enforce that Q10 ≤ Q50 ≤ Q90 at submission time, we strongly recommend ensuring your quantiles are properly ordered.
  • Crossing quantiles (e.g., Q10 > Q50 or Q50 > Q90) may indicate issues with your forecasting model and can result in poor evaluation scores, particularly for the probabilistic track (MWI scoring).
  • Well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts should naturally satisfy Q10 ≤ Q50 ≤ Q90, as these represent the 10th, 50th (median), and 90th percentiles of your predicted distribution.

Feel free to consult the API documentation for technical details and guidelines on submission formats.