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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is Predico?

  • Predico is a Collaborative Forecasting Platform designed to improve forecasting accuracy by facilitating collaboration between Market Makers (e.g., wind farm owners, grid operators) and Forecasters. It operates through API interactions only and has no front-end interface.

2. Who are the main participants?

  • Market Maker: An entity that owns resources or manages grids, publishing forecasting challenges and funding the sessions.
  • Forecaster: An individual or organization that submits forecasts to compete for prize money in response to challenges published by Market Makers.

3. How do Market Sessions and Challenges work?

  • Market Session: A daily period during which Market Makers can publish forecasting challenges, and Forecasters can submit their forecasts.
  • Market Challenge: A specific forecasting opportunity provided by a Market Maker, specifying details like target variables, time resolution and forecast horizon.

4. How do I register as a Forecaster?

  • Forecasters must apply by emailing predico@elia.be. Upon acceptance, you will receive a registration link. A historical forecast submission of at least 30 days, in 15-minute intervals, is mandatory for your first participation.

5. How are forecasts submitted?

  • Forecasts must be submitted via HTTPs requests to the platform's API before the Gate Closure Time.
  • You can only submit or update one forecast per variable per session. The most recent valid submission before the Gate Closure Time is considered.

6. What are the rules for submitting forecasts?

  • Gate Closure Time: Forecasts must be submitted on time; late submissions are not accepted.
  • Forecast Resolution: Forecasts must match the 15-minute time resolution requirement.
  • Coverage: Forecasts should cover the entire specified period providing up to 96 forecasted values per variable per day (adjusted for daylight saving time - 92/100 values in march/october DST change days, respectively).

7. How are forecasts evaluated and scored?

  • In deterministic forecasting, forecasters are assessed and ranked according to their Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). In contrast, forecasters are ranked based on pinball loss when evaluating forecasts at the 10th and 90th percentiles. In both cases, a lower value indicates a higher ranking for the forecaster.

  • Regarding prize distribution, it is done based on rank with 50% of the market value distributed to top-ranking Forecasters, and 50% based on the contribution to the ensemble forecast.

9. How are payments handled?

  • Payments are made monthly in Euro to European bank accounts. You must accumulate at least €1,000 in winnings to receive payment.

10. What compliance measures are in place?

  • Fair Play Policy: The market is designed to reward Forecasters making accurate forecasts. Integrity and honesty are paramount.
  • Prohibited Actions: Any attempt to interfere with the proper functioning of the market, platform, or competitors—including gaming the market—is strictly prohibited.
  • Disciplinary Actions: Violations will result in removal from the market, non-payment, and possible legal action.
  • Elia's Rights: Elia reserves the right to remove a Forecaster from the market for any reason.

11. Where can I access relevant data?

  • Input data is available on Elia’s (Open Data Portal)[https://opendata.elia.be]. You can also use external sources, like weather forecasts, to improve your submissions.

12. How will I be informed about updates?

  • Elia will send important updates and rule changes via email. Forecasters are responsible for staying informed about any rule changes or updates.

13. Who can I contact for more information?

Feel free to consult the API documentation for technical details and guidelines on submission formats.