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Introduction

The information below helps forecasters to understand critical definitions (vocabulary) and the general workflow of our collaborative forecasting platform.

Important

This information is thoroughly detailed on the Participation Rulebook. Please read it carefully before proceeding.

Where can I can test integrations before moving into production?

Before you begin submitting forecasts to the production environment (where your results will be evaluated), you can use our playground instance. This sandbox environment allows you to experiment, submit forecasts, and receive feedback without affecting your live data.

The playground environment mirrors the production environment’s endpoints, so the only change you'll need to make is updating the HOST in your API calls.

The following instances are available:

When interacting with Predico RESTful API

  • For most interactions, you will need a valid access token. Refer to the Authentication section for more information.
  • Besides looking at the request response status code, please ensure you check the response body for additional information. Often response messages are self-explanatory and can help you debug the problem at hands.
  • If you get any error with status code 500, please contact our team for further assistance: predico@elia.be.

Definitions

  • Market Maker: An entity that owns resources (e.g., wind farms) or manages a grid (e.g., a TSO) and seeks forecasts by opening and funding collaborative forecasting market sessions.
  • Forecaster: An individual or organization registered in the platform, aiming to submit forecasts to collaborative forecasting challenges opened by the Market Maker, competing for the available prize money in each session.
  • Market Session: A specific period during which Market Makers can create forecasting challenges, and Forecasters can submit forecasts for the open challenges.
  • Market Challenge: An opportunity, published by the Market Maker, with meta-data regarding a forecasting challenge that Forecasters can try to submit forecasts for.
  • Gate Closure Time: The deadline by which forecasts must be submitted for a market session.
  • Forecast Variables: Quantities to be forecasted. Currently only quantile 10, 50, 90 forecasts are accepted.
  • Ensemble Forecast: An aggregate forecast computed from multiple forecasters’ submissions.

For this proof of concept

Collaborative Forecasting Sessions

Below, you can find a sequence diagram illustrating the dynamics of a collaborative forecasting session, which is generally organized in four separate phases.

  • Phase 1: A new market session is scheduled to open.
  • Phase 2: Market Makers post new challenges, such as submitting day-ahead forecasts for specific assets (aka resources) in their portfolio.
  • Phase 3: Forecasters log into Predico API, download raw measurements data, build their models, and submit forecasts.
  • Phase 4: Forecasters log into Predico API, preview their skill scores

Check this out

See the service sequence diagram for a visual representation of the collaborative forecasting session.

Forecasting Components Breakdown

Predico uses ensemble techniques to combine forecasts from multiple forecasters, assigning weights based on their historical performance. See more about our approach in the Our forecasting models section.

Timezone and Time Resolution

The Predico platform operates in the Central European Time (CET). Forecasters should be aware of the following requirements:

  • Timezone: All times mentioned in the platform are in UTC.
  • Challenges Forecast Horizon: Challenges are typically day-ahead, covering the 24-hour period. The start/end datetimes of the forecast are defined according to target country timezone (in this case, Belgium, CET).

Therefore forecasted values for a specific day should cover:

  • Period from 22:00 to 21:45 UTC (DST Time / Summer Time)
  • Period from 23:00 to 22:45 UTC (Standard Time / Winter Time)

Daylight Saving Time (DST)

  • The platform adjusts for DST changes in March and October. On these days, the number of forecasted values per day will be 92 and 100, respectively.
  • Every forecasting challenge has information on the expected forecast leadtimes (start/end datetimes) to help forecasters prepare their submissions accordingly.

About market sessions and forecasts

Forecasters can submit forecasts for open sessions Market Challenges, competing for the prize money available. They may commence or stop contributing to the market at any time. Alternatively, they can also submit continuous forecasts which will later be sliced to create submissions for specific market sessions (see more at Preparing a Continuous Forecast). The two options to submit forecasts are illustrated below, in a simple diagram.

Session vs Continuous forecasts

Session Forecasts over Continuous Forecasts

  • A submitted a Session Forecast, will replace any Continuous Forecasts you may submit afterward, for the same period.

Our platform works in a session-by-session basis. Therefore, every forecast should read and understand the following rules and guidelines before starting submitting forecasts:

  • Submission Timing: Forecasts must be submitted before the gate closure time (10:00 CET) for that market session. Late submissions will not be considered.
  • Submission Period: Market sessions are open from 00:00 to 10:00 CET daily.
  • Submission Method: Forecasts are submitted to the platform's API via HTTPs requests. There is no front-end provided for this task.
  • Latest Forecast Considered: Only the latest forecast from a forecaster in a market session will be considered.
  • Unique Submissions: A forecaster may not submit multiple forecasts for the same variable (e.g., two quantile 50 submissions) under the same or different forecaster IDs for the same challenge. A Forecaster can update their original submissions using a valid API endpoint. The latest valid submissions (before Gate Closure Time) will be considered.
  • Forecast Coverage: Forecasts must cover the entire period mentioned in the challenge (start and end date). Given the fixed 15-minute time resolution for the submissions, Forecasters, should submit up to 96 forecasted quantities per variable (i.e., quantiles 10, 50, 90) per challenge, except for DST change days where these quantities might vary.
  • Time Resolution Compliance: Forecasts must match the time resolution specified in the challenge.
  • Forecast Data Format: Forecasts must be submitted in a specific format, as detailed in the Preparing a Session Forecast or Preparing a Continuous Forecast sections.

Evaluation and Scoring

Please see our Evaluation section for detailed information on how forecasts are evaluated and scored on the Predico platform. It also includes details on the daily prize pool distribution and monthly payment process.

What's next?

Proceed to the Getting Started section to learn how to participate in the Predico collaborative forecasting sessions.