Elia Program¶
Snapshot, not the authority
This page describes Elia's current challenge schedule and rewards. The
API is always authoritative - read gate_closure, start_datetime and
end_datetime from the challenge you are targeting rather than hard-coding
anything below.
Effective: 2025 onward · Resources: Belgian assets · Timezone: CET/CEST (Belgian local time) · Forecast variables: Q10, Q50, Q90
Forecast targets & data sources¶
Elia runs two resources. Both are aggregates, not single assets, and both are scored against Elia's own published measurements, which are free to read and therefore usable as training data. The public Markets directory shows the short version of what follows; this section is the reference.
belgium_solar_opendata_elia¶
Total photovoltaic generation injected on the Belgian grid, as one national aggregate.
| Quantity | Measured PV generation, Belgium |
| Unit | MW, mean power over the interval |
| Resolution | 15 min |
| Local time | Europe/Brussels (CET/CEST) |
| Boundary | All PV capacity monitored by Elia; no per-farm split |
Ground truth. Settled values come from Elia Open Data
ods032, field measured,
filtered to region:'Belgium'. Near-real-time values come from
ods087, field realtime.
Owner benchmark. Elia's own published forecast for this target (ods087, Q10/Q50/Q90) is submitted to every challenge, so your submission is ranked against a professional forecast as well as against your peers.
offshore_wind_opendata_elia¶
Aggregate wind generation from the offshore concession zone in the Belgian North Sea.
| Quantity | Measured offshore wind generation |
| Unit | MW, mean power over the interval |
| Resolution | 15 min |
| Local time | Europe/Brussels (CET/CEST) |
| Boundary | Every Belgian offshore farm summed; onshore excluded |
Ground truth. Elia Open Data
ods031, field measured,
filtered to offshoreonshore:'Offshore'. No near-real-time feed is ingested for
this resource, so the most recent hours arrive with the next consolidated run.
Revisions & settlement¶
Measurements are not final when first published. Both resources are re-imported daily over a rolling window (35 days for solar, 7 for offshore wind) as Elia consolidates its estimates, and are then frozen on day 6 of the following month. A daily score computed before that freeze can still move; the monthly ranking is computed from settled data.
To pull the history yourself, see Downloading Raw Data.
Challenge schedule¶
Market sessions open every hour on the hour (see Sessions & Challenges). Within those sessions, Elia publishes challenges across all three horizon categories:
| Category | Target window | Published at (gate closure, CET) |
|---|---|---|
| Intraday | The 24 h immediately after gate closure. | Every hour |
| Day-Ahead (D+1) | The next calendar day (00:00 → 24:00 local). | 10:00 |
| Extended (D+N) | A day 2–10 days ahead (D+2, D+3, …, up to D+10). | 10:00 |
On a typical weekday you therefore get 24 intraday opportunities per resource, plus an "extended" wave at the 10:00 gate covering day-ahead and the longer horizons.
Live schedule per resource
The table above is the typical configuration. Elia runs several resources and their schedules can differ. For the exact, current openings of a specific resource, open the Schedule page in your dashboard (https://predico.inesctec.pt/schedule, login required).
Eligibility & missed-day rules¶
- At most 5 missed days per month to remain eligible for the monthly league (Elite / Challenger / Runner-Up). Daily rewards remain available regardless.
- For each missed day, the day's peer 75th-percentile score is substituted into your monthly average.
See Rewards for the mechanism these numbers feed into.
Prize distribution¶
Each market resource has a €7,000 monthly prize pool, paid entirely to participating forecasters.
Where the €7,000 goes¶
The pool is split first by track (deterministic vs probabilistic), then by forecast horizon (Intraday vs Day-Ahead):
| Track | Intraday | Day-Ahead (D+1) | Track total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deterministic (Q50 · RMSE) | €1,750 | €1,750 | €3,500 |
| Probabilistic (Q10/Q90 · MWI) | €1,750 | €1,750 | €3,500 |
| Horizon total | €3,500 | €3,500 | €7,000 |
A forecaster therefore competes for four independent €1,750 envelopes per resource each month - one per (track, horizon) combination. Each envelope is distributed identically (see below), so the rules only need to be understood once.
Extended (D+N) horizons are unpaid for now
Extended challenges (D+2 through D+N) are open for participation but carry no prize money in the current period. The market owner will add them to the paid distribution once the platform exits its preview phase. Submitting still helps you build a track record - your scores count toward the public leaderboard regardless.
How each €1,750 envelope is distributed¶
The probabilistic envelope absorbs the max-error allocation into a larger Elite pot (€875 vs €775). Daily, Challenger, and Runner-Up amounts are identical across both tracks.
The full breakdown by league and monthly rank:
Deterministic (Q50 · RMSE)¶
Per €1,750 envelope - applied once per (track, horizon) envelope.
| League | Monthly Rank | Budget | Budget Allocation | Extra | Daily Rewards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 1st | €775 | €280 (36%) |
€100 to the Elite forecaster with the lowest peak error (split equally if tied) |
Daily pool: €500 per envelope, per month. Split evenly across the days of the month, then distributed to the top 5 by daily rank:
|
| 2nd | €180 (23%) | ||||
| 3rd | €125 (16%) | ||||
| 4th | €100 (13%) | ||||
| 5th | €90 (12%) | ||||
| Challenger | 6th | €350 | €70 each Evenly split (20% each) |
- | |
| 7th | |||||
| 8th | |||||
| 9th | |||||
| 10th | |||||
| Runner-Up | 11th | €25 | €25 (100%) | - | |
| Outside | 12th+ | €0 | - | - |
Probabilistic (Q10/Q90 · MWI)¶
Per €1,750 envelope - applied once per (track, horizon) envelope.
| League | Monthly Rank | Budget | Budget Allocation | Extra | Daily Rewards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elite | 1st | €875 | €300 (34%) | - (deterministic track only) |
Daily pool: €500 per envelope, per month. Split evenly across the days of the month, then distributed to the top 5 by daily rank:
|
| 2nd | €200 (23%) | ||||
| 3rd | €150 (17%) | ||||
| 4th | €120 (14%) | ||||
| 5th | €105 (12%) | ||||
| Challenger | 6th | €350 | €70 each Evenly split (20% each) |
||
| 7th | |||||
| 8th | |||||
| 9th | |||||
| 10th | |||||
| Runner-Up | 11th | €25 | €25 (100%) | ||
| Outside | 12th+ | €0 | - |
Why a stepped Elite split and a flat Challenger split?
By design, the worst Elite forecaster (rank 5: €90 Det / €105 Prob) still earns more than any Challenger forecaster (€70 each, ranks 6–10). This rewards consistent month-long top performance over a single strong day.
Fewer than 11 forecasters?
Unallocated league positions roll over to that envelope's daily-reward pool. Example: with 8 active market forecasters, the unassigned Challenger League and Runner-Up shares are added to the day pool.