Rewards¶
Once your forecasts are scored (see Evaluation), the platform ranks forecasters and distributes rewards. This page covers daily rankings, the monthly league, and prize distribution.
Rankings¶
Forecasters are ranked independently per track:
- Deterministic by RMSE.
- Probabilistic by MWI.
Each track produces a daily ranking and a monthly skill score. Rankings come in two views:
- Market rank — among eligible market forecasters only.
- Overall rank — across all forecasters (market + fixed-payment).
Daily rewards¶
Each day, the top 5 market forecasters in each track share that day's reward pool, with shares stepped sharply by rank.
- All three quantiles (Q10, Q50, Q90) required to be eligible.
- Daily rewards are independent of monthly league eligibility — exceeding the monthly missed-day allowance does not disqualify you from a day's rewards.
Tie-break
When two forecasters tie on the same daily score, the one with the better monthly average rank takes the higher daily position. This rewards consistent month-long performance.
Example
If you are 1st for RMSE and 3rd for MWI on a given day, you collect 40% of that day's deterministic pool + 18% of that day's probabilistic pool = 29% of the day's combined reward across both tracks.
Monthly league¶
At month-end, forecasters are tiered by their monthly average score. Each tier unlocks a different combination of reward streams.
Monthly league eligibility
- A missed-day allowance of 5 days, applied uniformly across all programs. Exceeding it disqualifies you from monthly league rewards (Elite / Challenger / Runner-Up). Daily rewards remain available.
- For each missed day, the day's peer 75th-percentile score is substituted into your monthly average, dragging your score toward the worse end of the field.
- Account creation date does not affect league eligibility. Forecasters who register or start submitting partway through the month compete on the same calendar as everyone else. The penalty substitution above is the mechanism that accounts for absent days; no separate late-joiner exclusion applies.
A "missed day" is a day where your score was replaced by the peer-Q75 penalty — i.e. a day that failed the qualification rules. See Intraday Evaluation and Day-Ahead & Extended Evaluation for the per-horizon definition.
Prize distribution¶
The size of the prize pool and the way it splits are program-specific — they depend on the market owner. The mechanism below is the same for every program; only the amounts change. For the concrete figures, see your program: Elia · 50Hertz.
How any program's pool is distributed:
- Split by track, then by horizon. The monthly pool per resource is divided first between the deterministic and probabilistic tracks, then between the horizons that program pays for, yielding one equal envelope per (track, horizon) combination. A program may publish horizons that carry no prize money (e.g. unpaid preview horizons); those get no envelope.
- Each envelope is distributed identically, via four components:
- Elite: stepped split by monthly rank (top performers earn more).
- Daily: a fixed slice split evenly across the days of the month, then to the top 5 by daily rank (40 / 27 / 18 / 10 / 5 %).
- Challenger: flat split across the next tier of monthly ranks.
- Runner-Up: a single fixed prize for the rank just below Challenger.
- Deterministic max-error bonus. On the deterministic track only, a bonus goes to the Elite forecaster with the lowest peak error.
Fewer than 11 forecasters?
Unallocated league positions roll over to that envelope's daily-reward pool.
Payment¶
Monthly payments are processed within the first weeks of the following month. Payment thresholds, accepted regions, and currency are deployment-specific — see the Participation Rulebook for legal conditions.
Viewing your scores¶
- API — see Listing Session Submission Scores.
- Web dashboard — https://predico.inesctec.pt/dashboard. The Market Scores report separates market vs. non-market participants so you can compute your market rank.